Papers and research
The Reasonable Grounds Model (RGM) is founded on published research and case-based analysis that bridges maritime law, vessel operations, and evidentiary reasoning. It is the product of a progressive body of work developed over two decades of research, practice, and arbitration experience. The following publications form the foundational basis for the proposed methodology and substantiate the shift from conventional 'good weather-only' analysis to a comprehensive, probabilistic framework incorporating technical, legal, and evidentiary reforms.
The following summaries of key publications offer insight into the development of the model and its application in real-world charterparty disputes:
Foundation & Context
Papers & Research
Douglas Parts I–II and UPC Parts I–V. Detailed legal and methodological foundation for performance claims and defences.
Methodology Overview
Summary bridging the research papers and practical demonstrations, explaining how the RGM methodology works in practice.
Critique of WRC Involvement
Neutral overview of weather routing companies’ role in performance claims, with focus on independence and compliance.
Accuracy of Hindcast Data
Technical background on reliability, limitations, and appropriate use of hindcast weather datasets.
Legal & Compliance Framework
Logbooks, Accuracy, and Compliance
Outlines SOLAS, STCW, and flag-state legal obligations on accurate record-keeping.
Data Integrity & Evidence Handling Guide
Best practices for preserving evidential strength of voyage performance data.
Model Arbitration Clause
Suggested charterparty clause to adopt the RGM methodology for resolving performance disputes.
Practical Tools for Applying RGM
Performance Claim Checklist
Step-by-step guide to ensure all necessary data is provided for an RGM assessment.
Good Practice Guide for Voyage Data
Proactive measures for recording and preserving accurate voyage data.
RGM Quick Reference Sheet
One-page visual summary of the RGM methodology: inputs, process, outputs.
Comparative & Demonstrative Materials
Sample RGM Guru Report (Anonymised)
Example report showing structure, graphs, and conclusions produced by RGM Guru.
Comparison Table: WRC Report vs. RGM Guru Report
Side-by-side view of methodology, compliance, and output differences.
Case Study (Anonymised) – PANAMAX TRADER
Demonstrates the RGM methodology applied in practice to a real voyage (all identifiers removed).
Future research
Future research will focus on:
AI-driven pattern recognition in voyage data
Legal acceptability of probabilistic performance models
Dashboard visualisation standards for arbitral evidence
Papers are available upon request from info@rgmguru.com or by logging into the member area (coming soon).